Author : Ashutosh Sharma 1
Date of Publication :7th October 2016
Abstract: Drought is one of the most deadly natural phenomenons, which causes huge monetary losses around the globe. Changing climate and global warming is further anticipated to aggravate the drought scenarios. Assessment of climate change impacts on drought patterns plays important role in preparation of drought policies. Monthly rainfall data (from 1901 to 2000) is converted into standardized precipitation index (SPI) to quantify the drought intensity. Fuzzy c-mean (FCM) clustering approach is used to identify the homogeneous drought regions. Two cluster validity indices are used to validate the FCM parameters and obtain the optimal number of clusters. Finally, the whole data series is divided into four series to assess the impact of changing the climate on drought pattern. Drought pattern has shown a significant impact of climate change.
Reference :
-
- M. K. Goyal and V. Gupta, ―Identification of homogeneous rainfall regimes in northeast region of India using fuzzy cluster analysis,‖ Water Resour. Manag., vol. 28, no. 13, pp. 4491–4511, 2014.
- A. K. Mishra and V. R. Desai, ―Drought forecasting using stochastic models,‖ Stoch Env. Res Risk Assess 19 326–339, pp. 326–339, 2005.
- A. R. Rao and V. V. Srinivas, ―Regionalization of watersheds by fuzzy cluster analysis,‖ J. Hydrol., vol. 318, no. 1–4, pp. 57–79, 2006.
- M. K. Goyal and A. Sharma, ―A fuzzy c-means approach regionalization for analysis of meteorological drought homogeneous regions in western India,‖ Nat. Hazards, 2016.
- A. Zargar, R. Sadiq, B. Naser, and F. I. Khan, ―A review of drought indices,‖ Environ. Rev., vol. 19, no. NA, pp. 333–349, 2011.
- T. B. Mckee, N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist, ―The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales,‖ AMS 8th Conf. Appl. Climatol., no. January, pp. 179–184, 1993
- H. Li, C. X. S. Beldring, L. Merete, and T. Sharad, ―Water Resources Under Climate Change in Himalayan Basins,‖ pp. 843–859, 2016.
- R. K. Pachauri and L. A. Meyer, IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2014